The economy: It’s not getting any better

Isle homeless count is expected to soar

Officials, homeless service providers and volunteers have begun counting Hawaii’s homeless, beginning with those who spent the night on Friday, Jan. 23, at shelters across the state. The following week, teams of counters visited beaches, streets and parks asking each person where they slept last Friday and recorded names and descriptions of each person to avoid duplications. The state says more than 20,901 people I Hawaii used some form of homeless outreach service last year.

It will take months to compile the final national tally of homeless but officials expect the totals to be substantially higher than the last count two years ago. Most cities report huge increases in the need for shelter. The Department of Housing and Urban Development requires the count for any community seeking federal funds for homeless programs. It includes those on the street as well as people in homeless shelters, transitional housing and in hospitals, mental wards and jails. Increasingly, it includes working but poor renters who are evicted when landlords default.

On Oahu, Darlene Hein, director of community service at Waikiki Health Center, led survey efforts. Here, homeless service providers have not seen a large increase in the homeless population, she said – at least not yet. However, inquiries from people needing help finding food or paying their rent and electric bill are increasing as hotel and restaurant employees have had their hours scaled back to 10 to 20 hours a week.

“We're getting a lot more calls about food pantries, food banks and food stamps. And just more questions about 'How do I get some help,' which is the first step before 'I no longer have a place to live.'" Hein said. Organizers hope the results of the homeless census will give a better idea of who the chronically homeless are and what circumstances contribute to their being homeless.

Holiday donations decline for many Hawaii charities

Although the Salvation Army's Red Kettles grossed an estimated $784,000 compared with $717,000 last year, other charitable organizations in the state haven’t fared as well, including the Aloha United Way, which expects to miss this year's fundraising goal by $1.1 million.

Foodland Shoppers also contributed nearly $100,000 to the Share a Holiday Feast program operated by the Salvation Army in partnership with Foodland and Sack N Save. The money will be converted to gift certificates for families in need. However, the Salvation Army raises most of its money through direct mail appeals, and those have not yet been totaled.

The Salvation Army may have benefited from in-person, spur-of-the-moment donations, but Aloha United Way, which relies heavily on pledges, has felt the effects of more cautious donors. "The impression we've gotten is that this is a very difficult time for people," said Susan Au Doyle, AUW's president and chief professional officer. "People, whether they've experienced impacts of the economy or are just anticipating them, are being very cautious."

AUW hoped to raise $11.9 million in 2008 for its social service partners and programs, but the projected total will likely be $10.8 million. The organization raised $11.8 million last year. "As people watch the economy, they are very aware of the growing needs of the community,” Doyle said. “They gave less than last year, but they still gave."

The Hawaii Foodbank had a 20 percent increase in donations this year, but distributions to needy families and individuals increased 23 percent. In December, the nonprofit took in 940,000 pounds of food compared to 947,000 in December 2007. It also purchased 200,000 pounds of food using donations.

Helping Hands Hawai'i program coordinator Scott Morishige said his organization has seen a drop in monetary giving but an increase in donations of food, clothing, furniture and other goods. Helping Hands administers the Honolulu Advertiser Christmas Fund, which dropped from $254,000 in donations last year to an estimated $167,300. In the meantime, Helping Hands’  Adopt-A-Family program grew from 100 to 150 adopted families.

Survey says Honolulu to lose 2,200 jobs in 2009

A study by the U.S. Conference of Mayors predicted Honolulu will lose 2,200 jobs by the end of the year, which is less than 1 percent of the area’s total work force at the end of 2008, and that the city’s unemployment rate would rise to 4.5 percent.

In fact, the unemployment rate for the state grew to 5.5 percent in December, an increase of 83 percent from December 2007. The increase in the unemployment rate from a revised 5 percent in November marked the highest level since the rate reached 5.5 percent in December 1998. More than 4,000 government jobs were lost in December, mostly temporary election hires, while construction employment lost 900 jobs in the month. Tourism jobs actually increased, largely due to the reopening of the newly renovated Mauna Kea Beach Hotel.

The Conference of Mayors study estimated job losses in the nation’s 363 cities, home to 85 percent of the population. The study predicted New York will lose the most jobs, 180,800, while only five cities are expected to escape job losses. Las Vegas is expected to lose 3.9 percent of its work force, the highest percentage of jobs in cities with at least 500,000 jobs.

Hawaii reports 15 'mass layoffs' in December

Hawaii had 15 “mass layoffs” in December 2008, resulting in the loss of 1,650 jobs for at least 31 days, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Last December, by comparison, there were 12 mass layoffs resulting in 1,161 jobs lost.

Nationally, 2,275 mass layoffs occurred in December affecting 226,117 workers. From the beginning of the recession in December 2007 through December 2008, mass layoffs totaled 23,485 and resulted in 2.3 million initial unemployment claims.

Conference Board: CEO confidence is at all-time low

According to the Conference Board’s latest quarterly report, CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is at an all-time low. The organization’s survey of some 100 business leaders in a range of industries declined to its lowest level since the survey began in 1976. The Conference Board is a New York City-based non-partisan, nonprofit business membership and research organization.

Of the 100 executives surveyed, 24 said they felt confident about the current economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 40 in the third quarter. The fourth quarter was only the second time the measure has ever dipped below 30 – the last time was the second quarter of 1980, when it was 29.

 “The erosion in CEO confidence is a reflection of the rapid and severe deterioration in economic conditions experienced in the final months of 2008,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in the release. She added that CEOs surveyed for the report expressed continued pessimism about the overall economy in the first half of 2009. About 89 percent of those interviewed said they didn’t expect any change in the economy during the first six months of the year.

Consumer confidence also drops to record low

Neither the New Year nor the Obama inauguration helped consumer confidence this month, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which dipped in Januuary to a record-low 37.7, compared to the previous low of 38.6 in December. The index was at 100 in 1985 and has lost more than half from its level of 87.3 in January 2007.

Since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, consumer confidence is critical to the economy.  The confidence index, based on a survey of 5,000 households nationwide, “continues to hover at all-time lows and it appears that consumers have begun in the new year with the same degree of pessimism that they exhibited in the final months of 2008,” Conference Board director Lynn Franco said. “Looking ahead, consumers remain quite pessimistic about the state of the economy and about their earnings. And, until we begin to see considerable improvements ... we can’t say that the worst of times are behind us.”