UH economists say Hawaii job growth still a year away

Hawaii’s four counties should see the beginnings of an economic recovery this year, but real job growth won’t return until 2011, according to a new report by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

After suffering cumulative job losses of as much as 11 percent since 2007, Maui, Hawaii and Kauai counties will see smaller losses this year before registering gains of more than 1 percent in payroll jobs in 2011, according to the report. Oahu, which saw smaller losses, will follow the same trend, with relatively flat growth this year followed by a gain of less than 1 percent in 2011.

The Neighbor Islands suffered the largest losses in the visitor industry over the past two years, accounting for many of the jobs lost. However, all three counties should see growth in visitor arrivals ranging from 4.7 percent on the Big Island to 6.4 percent on Kauai to 7.4 percent on Maui, the report said.

Despite that, visitor days for the Neighbor Islands will lag some 7 percent to 8 percent behind their peak values by 2012, while Oahu will rise to within a few percentage points of its 2007 peak values. Construction, which saw job losses greater than 20 percent in every county except Honolulu, will see losses taper off this year, while the number of statewide private building permits will start to see some gains in 2011. Statewide, UHERO expects the cost-adjusted contracting base to remain unchanged in 2011, with little net hiring until 2012.

Real personal income, which has fallen on the Neighbor Islands over the past two years, will see more losses this year before making slight gains of 1.5 percent to 1.9 percent in 2001, the report said.