Researchers predict charitable giving to rebound in 2010

"2010 may just turn out to be the beginning of good news for fundraisers and charities.  But it may not be until 2011 that we see the amount of individual giving returning to its pre-recession purchasing power,” said Director Paul G. Schervish of The Center of Wealth and Philanthropy at Boston College, which released a study on May 27 that predicted charitable giving will hit between $222 billion and $227 billion for the year, up from $217 billion a year earlier.

While the trend seems to be ticking upward, John Havens, a senior research associate at the center, sounded a note of caution. He said that "growth may not continue the rest of the year if the fiscal crisis in Europe brings a second recessionary dip to the United States."

Individual charitable giving in 2009 amounted to $217.3 billion, the Center said in the study published by the Association of Fundraising Professionals.  This was a decline of $11.2 billion or 4.9 percent from the estimated $228.5 billion total in 2008, which was in addition to the 6 percent decline that the Center calculated in 2008.

For 2010, the researchers forecast that individual giving will increase between 3 and 4.5 percent over 2009. The projected growth is based on analysis of the first two quarters according to scenarios that assume relatively low and high economic growth. The full report will be published in the July/August 2010 issue of Advancing Philanthropy, the magazine of the Association of Fundraising Professionals.

The report's findings are based on estimates produced quarterly by the Individual Giving Model developed and housed at the Center on Wealth and Philanthropy.  It is the nation's first model designed to estimate future and real-time charitable giving by households on a quarterly basis.

"We're very optimistic about the growth in charitable giving in 2010 predicted by the Individual Giving Model," said Paulette V. Maehara, CFRE, CAE, president and CEO of AFP.  "The research developed by the Boston College Center on Wealth and Philanthropy certainly corresponds with what fundraisers experienced last year and what we're seeing so far in 2010.”