GDP drops and most agree it's a recession

According to a Pacific Business News survey, 69 percent of local online poll participants agree that Honolulu is in a recession, while 23 percent say no and 8 percent simply don't know. Nationally, the U.S. gross domestic product was down 0.3 percent for the third quarter, confirming recession worries. According to Moody's Economy.com, Honolulu is among two-thirds of U.S. cities now in an economic recession.

Honolulu’s economy is contracting, the Moody's analysis said, and the entire state is at risk for recession. Moody’s compiles a monthly list that measures whether the nation’s 381 largest metropolitan areas are experiencing economic expansion, are at risk or in recession, using employment and industrial production data. The report indicated 28 states were in recession, 16 were at risk, including Hawaii, and six were in expansion.

Hawaii employment peaked in March with 630,000 folks on the job, an all-time record. Since then, the number has slipped. By August, the number employed had fallen to about 625,000, down about 0.8 percent according to the U.S. Labor Department. Then, in September, there were nine “mass layoffs,” resulting in the loss of 919 jobs. Those layoffs followed four mass layoff events in August that resulted in the loss of 408 jobs. On Halloween, DFS annouced a layoff of 150 workers in Hawaii.

"Mass layoff" is defined as 50 or more initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits from one employer during a five-week period, with at least 50 workers separated for more than 30 days. Nationwide there were 2,269 mass layoffs in September -- a total of 235,681 jobs lost, the highest number since September 2005.